The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumption: Evidence from Weekly UnionPay Card Transaction Data in Shanghai

Yufei Liua, Xiaokun Chang b, Wei Wangc, Meng Zhaod

Author information


a College of Business and Economics, Shanghai Business School, Shanghai 201400, China

b School of Economics & Management, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China

c School of Public Economics and Administration, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Financial Information Technology, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433, China

d Unionpay Advisors, Shanghai 200122, China

E-mail: liuyf@sbs.edu.cn (Yufei Liu), xkchang@shmtu.edu.cn (Xiaokun Chang), wangwei2@ mail.shufe.edu.cn (Wei Wang, corresponding author), mengzhao@unionpayadvisors.com (Meng Zhao)

Abstract


The new coronavirus outbreak provides a genuinely exogenous unanticipated shock that enables this study to identify its impact on offline consumption, using unique weekly UnionPay card transaction data in 16 districts of 206 business circles in Shanghai, after China’s outbreak in late January 2020. Based on the difference-in-differences estimation strategy, this study finds that weekly offline consumption fell by 1.843 million RMB, and offline consumption frequency fell 447 times per business circle during the 20 subsequent weeks. It also finds a significant heterogeneity effect on different districts and categories, different times in a day of offline consumption spending in the post-COVID-19 pandemic window period, in which the government implemented different level policy responses for major public health emergencies. These findings suggest that offline consumption fell drastically after the unanticipated pandemic shock, which also means that policymakers need to be cautious in achieving a balance between economic recovery and epidemic prevention and control.

Keywords


COVID-19, pandemic, consumption, transaction data, Shanghai, policy response

Cite this article


Yufei Liu, Xiaokun Chang, Wei Wang, Meng ZhaoThe Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumption: Evidence from Weekly UnionPay Card Transaction Data in Shanghai. Front. Econ. China2021, 16(4): 744–777 https://doi.org/10.54605/fec20210407

About ISE | Contact ISE | Links | SUFE-IAR | SUFE
All Rights Reserved:2020 Institute for Advanced Research,
Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.777 Guoding Rd, Shanghai, PRC,200433